If North Carolina stops social distancing at the end of April — as President Donald Trump and administration officials have pushed for — there could be 750,000 state residents infected by June, said state health officials.
“The team found that the social distancing policies we currently have in place in North Carolina will help lower the likelihood that we’ll overload our health care system, that’s good news,” said Mandy Cohen, Secretary of the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services, in a news conference today.
The North Carolina-specific modeling forecast showed that if the state stopped social distancing by the end of this month, there is more than a 50% probability that the state will outstrip ICU bed capability and acute care capacity — even as early as May.
On the other hand, if social distancing stayed in effect, it could cut the number of infections by half a million cases — down to 250,000.
North Carolina now has 2,870 cases and 33 deaths, said Cohen.